Wildfire risk is rising across the Pacific Northwest at the same time timber prices remain volatile. For timberland owners, that combination can make long harvest rotations harder to justify and can reduce the value of forestland — with ripple effects for rural economies, carbon storage and the long-term supply of high-quality wood.
By improving how wildfire risk and market volatility are accounted for in timberland decisions, this research can help guide policies and investments that keep working forests productive, protect jobs in rural communities and sustain the forest benefits Oregonians rely on.
Researchers in Oregon State University’s College of Forestry analyzed how increasing wildfire risk and fluctuating timber prices can change the economics of managing Douglas-fir plantations.
Douglas-fir makes up roughly 65% of Oregon’s timber stock and is central to an $18 billion timber industry, while also providing wildlife habitat and storing carbon.
The team used economic modeling to compare harvest decisions under different levels of wildfire risk and timber price uncertainty. Their analysis also explored management and policy strategies that could help landowners reduce risk while maintaining forest productivity.
The study, published in Forest Policy and Economics, found that in a high-end wildfire-risk scenario where risk increases with stand age, the financially optimal harvest age could shift dramatically — to about 24 years, compared with about 65 years when wildfire risk is not considered.
In addition, the researchers found that wildfire risk and market volatility can lower forestland values substantially — by as much as 50% in worst-case scenarios.
Earlier harvesting may reduce long-term revenue potential, carbon storage and wood quality. The researchers say the results also point to ways decision-makers can better align forest policy with changing conditions, including incentives that reflect wildfire risk and market uncertainty.
Strategies discussed in the analysis include fuel reduction efforts such as thinning and prescribed burning, improved postfire salvage capacity, wildfire-adjusted insurance approaches and carbon market designs that account for mitigation and recovery.
By improving how wildfire risk and market volatility are accounted for in timberland decisions, this research can help guide policies and investments that keep working forests productive, protect jobs in rural communities and sustain the forest benefits Oregonians rely on, including carbon storage and wildlife habitat.